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Creators/Authors contains: "Horner‐Devine, Alexander R"

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  1. Salt intrusion poses a global threat to estuaries and deltas, exacerbated by climate change, drought, and sea level rise. This observational study investigates the impact of river discharge, wind, and tidal variations on salt intrusion in a branching river delta during drought. The complexity and spatial extent of deltas make comprehensive measurements challenging and rare. In this paper, we present a 17‐week data set of a historic drought in the Rhine‐Meuse Delta, capturing dynamics in a multiple‐channel system in a wide range of conditions. Key characteristics of this low‐lying delta are its branching channel network and complicated, human‐controlled discharge. Despite the system's complexity, we found that the subtidal salt intrusion length, defined by the 2 PSU isohaline , follows a power law relationship with Rhine River discharge . Subtidal water level variations contribute to short‐term variations in intrusion length, shifting the limit of salt intrusion upstream and downstream with a distance similar to the tidal excursion length. This can be attributed to the up‐estuary transport of seawater, caused by the estuary adjusting to variations in water levels at its mouth. However, spring‐neap variation in the tidal range does not alter the subtidal salt intrusion length. Side branches exhibit distinct dynamics from the main river, and their most important control is the downstream salinity. We show that treating the side branches separately is crucial to incorporate the highly variable downstream boundary condition, and may apply in other deltas or complex estuaries. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 25, 2025
  2. Subaqueous vortex ripples in equilibrium are characterized by their unique geometry and dimensions. Motivated by the recent direct numerical simulation study of oscillatory turbulent flow over a wavy bottom by Önder & Yuan ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 858, 2019, pp. 264–314), the objective of this study is to further investigate the fluid dynamical controls that determine the distinctive equilibrium dimensions of vortex ripples. We use direct numerical simulations to investigate the differences in flow kinetics between sinusoidal oscillatory flow over equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium vortex ripples. In comparison with the equilibrium case, the spanwise coherent vortices, the averaged bottom shear stress on overlying flow and the shear stress distribution on the ripple surface are identified as the key fluid dynamical controls on equilibrium dimensions. Based on these controls, we propose mechanisms in the selection of vortex ripple dimensions. We observe that the flow adjusts in such a way that the interaction between overlying flow and vortex ripples tends to generate the strongest coherent vortices while the ripple surface (or overlying flow) experiences the smallest shear stress averaged over ripple wavelength during the selection process. Through a triple decomposition of the flow, the component of the ripple-induced fluctuation is found to dictate these fluid dynamical controls, which implies that this component plays an important role in the evolution of vortex ripples. 
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  3. Abstract Changes in the severity and likelihood of flooding events are typically associated with changes in the intensity and frequency of streamflows, but temporal adjustments in a river's conveyance capacity can also contribute to shifts in flood hazard. To assess the relative importance of channel conveyance to flood hazard, we compare variations in channel conveyance to variations in the flow magnitude of moderate (1.2 years) floods at 50 river gauges in western Washington State between 1930 and 2020. In unregulated rivers, moderate floods have increased across the region, but in regulated rivers this trend is suppressed and in some cases reversed. Variations in channel conveyance are ubiquitous, but the magnitude and timing of adjustments are not regionally uniform. At 40% of gages, conveyance changes steadily and gradually. More often, however, conveyance variability is nonlinear, consisting of multidecadal oscillations (36% of gages), rapid changes due to unusually large sediment‐supply events (14% of gages), and increases or decreases to conveyance following flow regulation (10% of gages). The relative importance of conveyance variability for flood risk depends on the mode of adjustment; in certain locations with historic landslides, extreme floods, and flow regulation, the influence of conveyance changes on flood risk matches or exceeds that of streamflow at the same site. Flood hazard management would benefit from incorporating historic long‐term and short‐term conveyance changes in predictions of future flood hazard variability. 
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